predictions
& Proof
Scenarios called · outcomes documented · what comes next
called early, documented &
on the record
The record speaks for itself.
Each entry shows a scenario Olivier called, approximately when he called it, and what happened. Sources are linked where available. Probability context is given verbally in sessions - this page reflects that framing rather than presenting fixed numerical scores.
Olivier assigns every scenario a probability when he presents to clients - including scenarios most analysts have not yet named. That context is part of every session.
Called on 30 March 2026 in a Washington Times article, identifying Bushehr as a catastrophic risk asset - warning that the plant's vulnerability amid US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities made it a critical flashpoint for the region.
On 5 April 2026, Rosatom began evacuating over 200 staff from Bushehr as conditions near the reactor escalated. The plant was struck multiple times. Reuters →
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Become a Client →Called on 26 March 2026 in a National Interest article, warning that Iran had laid undersea mines in the Strait and that any clearing operation would take between six months and a year -- rendering the Strait effectively unusable.
On 23 April 2026, the US confirmed Iran had set mines in the Strait and that a clearing operation would take at least six months. Yahoo News →
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Request Olivier's updates →Called on 14 April 2022 - against the view of virtually every analyst at the time - that the war in Ukraine would last between ten and fifteen years. X, April 2022 →
Now in its fourth year with no resolution in sight. Early predictions of a swift Russian victory or negotiated settlement within months have been proven wrong. The conflict continues to reshape European security and energy markets. SCMP →
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Become a Client →Called in October 2023 in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel, warning that Israel would move to target Hamas political leadership based in Qatar. X, October 2023 →
In September 2025, Israel targeted and killed senior Hamas leadership figures. The call made nearly two years prior was confirmed.
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Become a Client →Warned in September 2025 of a possible upcoming war involving Iran - five months before the conflict began in February 2026. X, September 2025 →
The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran began in February 2026. At the time of the call, this scenario was not part of mainstream analyst consensus.
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Become a Client →In October 2023, in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel, five scenarios were called publicly on X:
1. Israel would go to war directly against Iran.
2. Israel would kill the leadership of Iran, including the IRGC.
3. Iran would attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz.
4. Iran would attack UAE and Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure.
5. Oil would double from its October 2023 price.
By mid-2026, scenarios 1 through 4 have been confirmed. The US-Israeli campaign against Iran began in February 2026; Iranian leadership including IRGC figures were killed; Iran moved to mine the Strait of Hormuz; and Iran struck UAE and Saudi energy infrastructure. On scenario 5, oil prices surged, rising by 45 per cent at the peak of the crisis, short of the doubling Olivier predicted.
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Become a Client →Called in September 2021 -- at the moment AUKUS was announced and France recalled its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra -- that the diplomatic fallout would push France toward closer alignment with China. X, September 2021 →
France subsequently deepened economic and diplomatic ties with China, positioning itself as a strategic alternative to the Anglo-American axis. The FT documented the strategic realignment. Financial Times →
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Become a Client →Called in February 2022, as Wagner Group forces were being celebrated in Bamako as France's replacement, that Russia would achieve no better outcome than France in Mali - and that the jihadist insurgency would continue to advance. X, February 2022 →
By April 2026, jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda were on the verge of bringing down the Malian government. Russian influence in the Sahel had failed to contain the insurgency. Reuters → The Guardian →
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Become a Client →Called in July 2019 that Trump would retaliate directly against Iran and its proxies if Iranian-backed forces killed Americans - a scenario most analysts considered unlikely given Trump's reluctance to engage militarily in the Middle East. X, July 2019 →
In January 2020, the US killed IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad - the most significant US strike on an Iranian military figure in decades. BBC →
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Become a Client →Called in December 2019 that Mali would fall to jihadist insurgents once France withdrew its military presence - at a time when France's Operation Barkhane was still widely seen as a viable stabilisation strategy. X, December 2019 →
By April 2026, al-Qaeda-linked jihadists were on the verge of bringing down the Malian government. France had long since been expelled; Russia's Wagner Group replacement had also failed to contain the insurgency. The Guardian →
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Become a Client →Warned in 2017 of the possibility of attacks on Saudi Aramco oil facilities - at a time when strikes on core Gulf energy infrastructure were considered a remote scenario by most analysts. X →
In September 2019, Iranian-backed drone and missile strikes hit the Abqaiq and Khurais Aramco processing facilities - temporarily knocking out approximately 5% of global oil supply in a single day. Washington Post →
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Become a Client →When the unlikely lands, his clients are never
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